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The Three-body Problem in the Taiwan Strait

glenssen — Monday, March 2, 2026 - 11:14

The status quo in the Taiwan Strait is looking precarious, with Beijing flexing its muscles, Taipei mired in political discord and Washington sending mixed signals about its policy. All parties should avoid taking provocative actions ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s scheduled trip to Beijing.

Thanks to Trump, Xi Has Time on His Side With Taiwan

emactaggart — Wednesday, February 25, 2026 - 15:38

Beijing is less likely to risk an invasion while Trump is facilitating its pressure campaign against Taipei.

Taiwan Strait: Managing Europe’s Risk in a Global Hotspot

eschelhaas — Thursday, October 16, 2025 - 16:47

Rising cross-strait tensions over Taiwan’s status quo have security and economic implications for the EU. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2025 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explores how the EU and member states can manage the risks.

With a Quiet Meeting in Alaska, Washington Tries to Reassure Taipei

pfranz — Friday, September 5, 2025 - 23:51

Crisis Group’s William Yang on reported defence talks between the Trump and Lai administrations last week in Alaska

On the Horizon: June-November 2025

eschelhaas — Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 15:29

This edition of On the Horizon includes entries on Burkina Faso, Iraq, the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, sounding the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge or escalate in the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.

President Lai’s First Year Sees Increased Tensions across the Taiwan Strait

eschelhaas — Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 15:17

As Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te completes his first year in office, cross-strait relations have become especially fraught. Crisis Group expert William Yang explains why Taipei and Beijing are increasingly at odds and what can be done to lower the temperature.

台湾海峡扩大中的两岸分歧

zbelison — 星期四, 九月 26, 2024 - 16:20

台湾新总统对台湾事实上的自治采取了更强硬的立场，北京则加大了对台湾的压力。为避免紧张局势升级，台北应该收敛言辞，北京也应该停止军事恐吓。

The Widening Schism across the Taiwan Strait

zbelison — Thursday, September 26, 2024 - 10:34

The new Taiwanese president has adopted a tougher stance on the island's de facto autonomy from China. Beijing, in turn, has amped up its pressure on the island. To avoid a mounting escalation, Taipei should tone down its rhetoric and Beijing should curb its military intimidation.

Taiwan and the Region under President Lai

tfuertes — Friday, May 17, 2024 - 11:57

In this in-person event, experts discuss the political and security situation in and around the Taiwan Strait and how the unofficial relationships between Taiwan and key regional actors may evolve under a new Taiwanese administration.

A Post-Election Risk Assessment for the Taiwan Strait

gmangoni — Wednesday, January 10, 2024 - 09:50