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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez and Yasmine Farouk about the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reactions in the Gulf and what might come next.

How the Latest Strikes Risk Opening a Pandora’s Box in the Gulf

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about the mounting tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, political fractures in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of further escalation in the Horn.

Crisis Group expert Pauline Bax describes the diplomatic fallout of revelations that employment agencies across Africa have lured men into joining the Russian side in the war in Ukraine

A fresh outbreak of hostilities between Islamabad and Kabul follows a rash of lethal jihadist attacks in western Pakistan. The Pakistani government says the Afghan Taliban are harbouring the militants. With outside powers’ help, both capitals should work to reduce tensions before they escalate further.

Crisis Group expert Richard Gowan analyses the UN vote marking the fourth anniversary of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.

Beijing is less likely to risk an invasion while Trump is facilitating its pressure campaign against Taipei.

In this online event, Crisis Group experts and Nate Swanson, Director of the Iran Strategy Project at Atlantic Council, examined the scenarios of war and peace between the U.S., Israel and Iran, and discussed what steps could help steer the region towards de-escalation.

The text below is an edited version of a lecture that Crisis Group President & CEO Comfort Ero gave to the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University on 24 February 2026.

In nearly five decades of mutual antagonism, the U.S. and Iran have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence.